On Friday last, the S&P500 dropped below its 10 day moving average of $2840. This means the odds are now high that the index is moving down into a daily cycle low. The 50 if not 62% retracement levels will probably get hit over the next couple of weeks. Expect the bears to come out in force trying to call sub 2000 numbers on the index. The probability of this happening remains very low. Sentiment has remained very subdued over this past six weeks. We still do not have enough sellers in the market to force a big collapse here.